Strategy & Horizon Scannning

Christopher Salmon

Chief Executive

When the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) was signed in December 2020, it marked the culmination of years of intense negotiations, public debate, and political upheaval. The United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union in the 2016 referendum sent shockwaves through both economies, and the trade deal that followed was built to provide a new framework for a post-Brexit relationship.

Now, several years on, we can begin to assess how this landmark agreement has reshaped not only the economic landscape but also the political, social, and industrial dimensions of both the EU and the UK. 

The transition has not been without challenges – tariffs, labour market concerns, and the complexity of Ireland / Northern Ireland’s status have all emerged as significant hurdles. At the same time, though, new opportunities for investment and trade have surfaced as businesses and governments adjust to the new realities.

So as the dust settles and new trade patterns begin to emerge, the question remains: Has the trade deal lived up to its promises, or has it created new obstacles in an already complex environment? Read on as we take a closer look at the EU-UK Trade Deal, or contact the clearBorder team today for expert and independent trade consultancy services. 

Recap: What Was the EU UK Trade Deal? 

The EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), signed on December 24, 2020, came into force at the beginning of 2021, defining the relationship between the UK and the EU after Brexit. It replaced the UK’s membership in the EU’s single market and customs union with a new set of rules for trade, security, and cooperation.

  • The deal allowed for tariff-free and quota-free trade on goods between the UK and EU, but it introduced several new checks, regulatory requirements, and customs procedures at the borders. 
  • Services, especially financial services – a key part of the UK economy – were largely excluded, leaving future negotiations necessary for this vital sector. 
  • The agreement also addressed key issues like fishing rights, state aid, and the level playing field – the latter aiming to prevent either side from gaining a competitive advantage by undercutting regulations.

Despite the agreement being struck just days before the transition period ended, it did little to prevent the disruption that businesses and industries faced as they adapted to new processes and paperwork.

The TCA remains a cornerstone of post-Brexit relations, but many traders agree: it has not been a complete solution to the economic and political complexities of the UK’s departure from the EU.

The Context 

The EU-UK Trade Deal emerged from the 2016 Brexit referendum, where the UK voted to leave the EU, driven by concerns over sovereignty and migration. After officially leaving the EU in January 2020, the UK entered a transition period while negotiating its future relationship with the bloc. 

As the global pandemic disrupted supply chains and business operations, the stakes for reaching an agreement grew even higher. The December 2020 agreement was therefore seen as a lifeline for businesses dependent on EU-UK trade, even if it left unresolved questions about key sectors like financial services, labour migration, and Northern Ireland’s special status under the protocol.

The full impacts of this deal are being felt across industries, with mixed results depending on sector and geography. While the deal was designed to avoid the chaos of a no-deal exit, it has ushered in a new reality for UK-EU relations, marked by uncertainty, adaptation, and ongoing renegotiations.

Challenges Facing EU & UK Traders

The EU-UK Trade Deal, while providing a framework for trade post-Brexit, has not come without its challenges. Both EU and UK traders have faced numerous hurdles as they navigate the new trading environment. 

Key challenges include:

  • Customs and Border Delays: With the end of free movement of goods, new customs checks, and paperwork requirements have led to delays, particularly at key ports. Importers and exporters face longer processing times for shipments, especially when dealing with complex customs documentation.
  • Rules of Origin: Under the Trade and Cooperation Agreement, goods must meet specific “rules of origin” criteria to qualify for tariff-free trade. This has placed a burden on businesses to prove the origin of their products, especially those with complex supply chains.
  • Increased Costs: Businesses now face additional costs related to customs declarations, compliance with new standards, and professional services such as customs brokers. Moreover, companies are experiencing higher shipping and transport fees due to disruptions at borders.
  • Labour Shortages: The end of free movement of people has led to significant labour shortages in sectors such as agriculture, construction, and hospitality. Both the EU and UK are grappling with recruiting and retaining workers, especially those with specialised skills.
  • Regulatory Divergence: As the UK sets its own regulatory standards, divergence from EU rules has created uncertainty for businesses, especially those involved in industries like manufacturing and food. This can result in higher compliance costs and further barriers to trade.
  • Northern Ireland Protocol: The unique status of Northern Ireland, still part of the EU’s single market for goods, has led to challenges in moving goods between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Traders face complex rules and checks, with political tensions further complicating the situation.

Opportunities For Businesses

That said, the EU-UK Trade Deal has also created a series of opportunities for businesses on both sides to innovate, expand, and reshape their strategies:

  • New Global Trade Agreements: The UK is free to strike independent trade deals with non-EU countries. This opens doors for UK businesses to access new markets in Asia, North America, and beyond. Similarly, EU businesses can strengthen trade ties within the bloc or with third countries while maintaining tariff-free trade with the UK.
  • Digital Trade: The deal includes provisions to facilitate digital trade, enabling businesses to sell goods and services across borders more efficiently. Companies can tap into the booming e-commerce sector, leveraging the growing demand for online goods and services.
  • Service Sector Growth: Although financial services were not heavily covered in the deal, UK firms have the flexibility to innovate and grow in this area. If operating strategically, fintech, legal, and creative services in particular stand to benefit from new, more flexible regulations and greater market access.
  • Innovation and Investment: With the UK’s regulatory freedom, businesses have the opportunity to influence and adapt to new UK standards that might be more favourable than previous EU regulations. This could promote investment in sectors such as tech, renewable energy, and advanced manufacturing.
  • Increased Focus on Domestic Supply Chains: The challenges posed by customs checks and delays have encouraged both UK and EU businesses to localise supply chains. This shift opens opportunities for domestic suppliers and manufacturers, reducing dependence on complex international logistics.
  • Sustainability and Green Trade: Both the EU and UK are focused on becoming global leaders in sustainability. The green economy and trade of eco-friendly goods and services are expected to expand, providing opportunities for businesses specialising in renewable energy, electric vehicles, and sustainable technologies (despite criticism from some commentators over what they see as ineffective action by the UK government). 
  • Northern Ireland Access: Northern Ireland’s unique position within both the UK and the EU single market offers opportunities for businesses to operate as a hub for trade between the UK and the EU. Firms can leverage this dual access to maximise market potential.
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Lasting Impacts

While some effects were felt immediately, others are gradually emerging as the realities of post-Brexit trade arrangements solidify. 

One of the most notable impacts has been the reintroduction of customs checks and paperwork – despite the tariff-free agreement, these trade frictions have led to delays and increased costs, especially for industries that rely on just-in-time supply chains, such as manufacturing and agriculture. 

This has complicated the flow of goods between the UK and the EU, requiring businesses to adapt to new regulatory burdens and administrative complexities.

Another lasting impact is the Northern Ireland Protocol, which has created unique trade conditions for Northern Ireland, allowing it to remain aligned with certain EU regulations while being part of the UK. This dual access to both markets, while advantageous in some respects, has led to political tensions and logistical challenges for businesses operating across these borders. 

Investment patterns have shifted as well, with many businesses reconsidering where to allocate resources in light of Brexit. Some companies have chosen to relocate operations to EU countries to maintain access to the single market, while others are exploring new opportunities within the UK’s independent regulatory framework. 

Foreign direct investment is adapting, with firms evaluating the long-term stability and growth potential of the UK as it navigates a new phase of global trade relations.

Finally, the trade relations between both the UK and the EU are evolving as both entities seek new agreements with third countries. For UK businesses, this presents new opportunities to access emerging markets, while EU businesses are reconfiguring supply chains and trade routes. 

Making Seamless Cross-Border Trade a Reality 

The EU-UK Trade Deal has undoubtedly reshaped the trading landscape, presenting both challenges and opportunities for businesses – and governments – on both sides. For all operators, navigating this new environment requires: 

  • Careful planning
  • Compliance with evolving regulations
  • Strategic foresight 

Here at clearBorder, we understand the complexities of post-Brexit trade and are dedicated to helping businesses transition smoothly.

Whether you need tailored consultancy services for customs compliance or want to equip your team with the right skills through our trade training courses, we’re here to guide you every step of the way. 

Contact us today to keep your cross-border operations efficient and future-proof.

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Strategy & Horizon Scannning

Steel and Aluminium at a Crossroads: Supply Chains, Tariff Wars, Business Impacts

  TLDR 2025 reshaped steel and aluminium supply chains. U.S. tariffs, EU uncertainty, and Chinese overcapacity have all driven structural rerouting, pricing instability, and compliance pressure. Businesses elevating metals sourcing to a strategic capability – with stronger origin assurance, supplier governance, and scenario planning – typically outperform competitors in terms of resilience, cost control, and market access. Firms will need to adapt to preserve their position and competitiveness. 2025 saw the sharpest escalation in metals-trade interventions since the original, President Trump-era Section 232 measures, in 2018. What began as a series of “targeted” moves early in 2025 has evolved into a multi-jurisdictional reset, touching tariffs, origin rules, industrial policy, and supply chain governance. For global businesses reliant on steel and aluminium, this will represent a fundamental shift in operations and market position. Steel and aluminium are systemic commodities. They underpin every major industrial value chain: automotive, aerospace, defence, energy infrastructure, construction, household appliances, and large consumer goods. When trade conditions tighten around these materials, the shockwaves propagate quickly: rising input costs, margin compression, delayed production cycles, and forced redesign of sourcing strategies. Several trigger events collided in 2025: In May 2025, the U.S. raised tariffs to 50% on a wide range of steel and aluminium categories, materially altering the economics of imports. By Q4, Washington introduced tightened melt-and-pour origin rules, significantly raising the bar for compliance and due diligence. Meanwhile, the EU remained locked in slow-moving negotiations with the U.S. on tariff-rate quotas, while simultaneously confronting the long-running challenge of Chinese overcapacity depressing European prices. China’s own pricing volatility (driven by subsidised overproduction and domestic demand swings) continue to distort global markets. Taken together, developments like these show that steel and aluminium supply chains are not experiencing a temporary disruption – they are undergoing a deeper, structural reorganisation. Businesses will need to adapt to preserve their position and competitiveness. Why this matters Global metals policy is moving faster than most supply chains can adjust. The 50% U.S. tariffs, melt-and-pour rules, EU safeguard activity, and China’s continued overproduction are reshaping sourcing and pricing across entire industries. For manufacturers and importers, this is not just a cost issue; it’s a governance, compliance, and competitiveness issue. How firms respond will determine whether they stay ahead of regulatory pressure, or become ensnared in a rapidly tightening enforcement environment. Expert guidance on international trade Contact clearBorder today →  How tariffs reshape global flows The 50% U.S. tariffs  Under the administration of President Trump, the U.S.’s move to increase tariffs to 50% on a wide range of steel and aluminium products marked a pivot in metals trade. The measures affect core inputs such as semi-finished steel, rolled products, extrusions, and several aluminium categories. Downstream products such as cars, domestic appliances, and industrial machinery are increasingly examined for the embedded origin of their metal content. The tariff shock has created three immediate consequences: Domestic inflation in U.S. metals markets. Manufacturers face significantly higher input costs, prompting either price rises or margin erosion. Redirected flows from Asia to Europe. Exporters seeking to avoid U.S. duties have diverted excess supply toward the EU, exacerbating oversupply conditions and placing further pressure on European producers. A new compliance burden for global exporters. The tightened melt-and-pour rules raise the risk of inadvertent non-compliance. Trans-shipment scrutiny has increased; origin validation is now a core operational requirement. EU’s dilemma The EU finds itself between a rock and a hard place. On one side are slow, uncertain EU–U.S. negotiations on tariff-rate quotas and metals cooperation frameworks; on the other is intensifying pressure from the steel lobby to protect European producers from diverted Asian supply after the U.S. tariff shock. European manufacturers face irregular and unpredictable input costs, complicating price setting, inventory planning, and long-term contracting. The EU’s Green Deal Industrial Plan adds further complexity, as imported metals are essential for its energy-transition ambitions, yet those same imports now threaten domestic competitiveness. The overcapacity question China’s long-standing overcapacity issue remains the gravitational centre of global metals instability. Production levels continue to exceed domestic demand, pushing subsidised excess onto global markets and driving renewed price volatility. This places other jurisdictions in a defensive posture. European and U.S. producers have reported intensified undercutting; Asian and Latin American manufacturers face narrowing margins; and developing economies risk deeper dependence on low-cost Chinese supply. Beijing may consider retaliatory measures, or deepen its alignment with Global South partners (such as Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand in Southeast Asia, or members of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States) to mitigate against Western trade interventions. Either path would add new layers of complexity to an already fragmented global steel and aluminium market. Re-routing, re-pricing, re-risking How supply chains are responding The reshaping of steel and aluminium trade is visible in operational patterns, with supply chains reorganising at pace. Businesses are re-routing in order to defend margin and meet compliance thresholds. According to emerging reports, Asian-origin metals that previously flowed into the U.S. are being diverted toward Europe, Turkey, and the Middle East. European manufacturers, in turn, are exploring alternative inputs from India, Brazil, and the Gulf to avoid the tariff spillover effects. This repositioning may also trigger changes in logistics: greater use of east-west routes into the EU, potentially more inventory buffering, and in some sectors (such as automotive and machinery) a shift toward nearshoring for critical components. Cost structures are being re-priced globally. The U.S. tariff shock has lifted domestic prices sharply, while excess supply has depressed segments of the European market. Producers in China and Southeast Asia have adjusted export strategies in real time, offering deeper discounts to maintain throughput. For buyers, this creates a two-speed market: inflationary in the U.S., deflationary or erratic elsewhere. Long-term contracts are harder to negotiate, and index-linked pricing is seeing a resurgence. Perhaps most importantly, supply chains are being re-risked. Compliance is now inseparable from commercial decision-making – a cheap tonne of steel that ultimately fails melt-and-pour verification is a liability, not a saving. Manufacturers are mapping exposure at a deeper level than before, tracing inputs back to smelters (not mills), and stress-testing for tariff escalation or port inspections. Insurance markets are responding too, with new language around origin risk and misdeclaration liability appearing in trade credit and marine cargo policies. Rising compliance complexity The enforcement of the U.S. melt-and-pour rule is proving to be one of the most consequential compliance developments. By requiring origin to be established at the smelting stage – not the final manufacturing stage – regulators have effectively redrawn the documentation burden for the entire value chain. Finished goods manufacturers, especially in automotive, appliances, construction products, and machinery, must now evidence multi-layered provenance to avoid penalties or shipment holds. This comes alongside broader tightening: The EU is advancing anti-circumvention probes and designing new safeguard mechanisms around diverted Asian supply Tariff-rate quota negotiations with the U.S. remain uncertain, complicating long-term planning The UK faces a hybrid challenge: exporters into the U.S. or EU must meet foreign origin standards and navigate domestic decarbonisation requirements shaping the future of UK steelmaking For business boardrooms, this translates into elevated expectations around: Proving origin at smelter level Supplier vetting across multiple jurisdictions End-to-end documentation capable of withstanding audits Horizon scanning for tariff escalation and market fragmentation Avoiding unintentional trans-shipment exposure, especially in multi-country routing models Implications for business Cost structures will remain unstable for the near term. U.S. tariffs have created inflationary pressure domestically; Europe is facing oversupply; and Chinese volatility continues to inject uncertainty into global reference prices. Businesses should anticipate continued dual-market dynamics throughout 2026. Compliance risk has moved from operational to existential. The melt-and-pour rule, EU safeguard mechanisms, and intensified anti-circumvention enforcement mean that the regulatory exposure of a single misclassified input far exceeds the cost of the input itself. Boardrooms increasingly view origin assurance as part of corporate governance, not logistics. Supply chain strategy is entering a redesign phase. Nearshoring and multi-regional sourcing are gaining momentum Dual or triple sourcing for steel and aluminium is becoming standard in automotive, engineering, and construction Inventory models are shifting from just-in-time to strategic buffering Quality and compliance maturity are becoming as important as price when selecting a supplier Commercial positioning is changing, too. Companies that can evidence clean origin, stable sourcing, and strong governance are positioned to outperform competitors in tenders – particularly with OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) facing strict regulatory exposure of their own. For some sectors, metals compliance is now a competitive differentiator. The last word Steel and aluminium have always been essential industrial inputs, but in the current climate, they’ve become a barometer of global economic and geopolitical tension. Tariffs, origin rules, and enforcement actions are all actively reshaping supply chains, capital allocation, and competitiveness. The businesses equipped to succeed in this environment treat metals not simply as commodities to be purchased, but as strategic exposures to be governed. This means that decision-makers have visibility deeper than tier-one suppliers; they can evidence origin at smelt stage. They plan for tariff escalation; not react to it. And they embed compliance into commercial decision-making. Early, proactive movement will help protect against price shocks, audit interventions, and market-access constraints, as the next phase of trade policy unfolds. For manufacturers, importers, and exporters, the question is not whether to adapt, but how quickly. The former era of (relatively) stable and predictable metals flows is over – strategic readiness is now the defining commercial advantage. For trade advisory tailored to your business and its operations Contact the clearBorderteam today → 

Steel and Aluminium at a Crossroads: Supply Chains, Tariff Wars, Business Impacts
Strategy & Horizon Scannning

Introducing our new podcast series ‘Borders for the Boardroom’

“Borders for the Boardroom” is a podcast series brought to you by the team at clearBorder. In these short episodes, we introduce you to all things trade and borders providing an insight and understanding that you may not have had before. We hope that this means when you return to your business you have a greater knowledge of the impact and challenges borders and trade will have on your organisation, as well as the opportunities available to perhaps do things differently, reduce risk and continue to grow. Each podcast introduces a new topic, led by one of the clearBorder team of experts. We hope you enjoy it. If you want to continue the conversation or have any questions then do get in touch with us at info@clearborder.co.uk. We’ll see you next time. Produced and edited by Yada Yada. Listen here: Spotify  |  Apple

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Strategy & Horizon Scannning

A fragile reset? What the US–China tariff truce means for cross-border trade strategies in 2026

In late October 2025, a diplomatic thaw between Washington and Beijing produced a narrowly scoped trade “pause” – a tactical (and temporary) easing of the headline tensions which have dominated the trade-sphere in recent months.  The agreement trimmed select U.S. tariff categories (for example, halving certain fentanyl-related duties), and opened the door to resumed Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans; while Beijing signalled a conditional scaling back of some export controls on rare earth elements.  For boardrooms, this pause buys time for resilience-building; what it does not do is remove structural levers that can reignite escalation. China retains decisive market power over rare earths and refining capacity, and Beijing’s export restrictions – introduced and then expanded in October 2025 – remain a latent threat to industries from EV batteries to defence suppliers. Financial and commodity markets treated the announcement as tentative: rare-earth prices and equities briefly eased, but analysts warned supplies and stocks could re-tighten if the geopolitical headwinds shifted.  Meanwhile, political and legal fault-lines persist in Washington. The administration’s tariff authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) is the subject of active judicial scrutiny at the U.S. Supreme Court; justices heard oral arguments on 5 November 2025 and raised serious questions about executive reach. A negative ruling could remove a major instrument of U.S. trade policy – or force the administration to pivot to other statutory levers. That legal uncertainty compounds the truce’s fragility.    Why this matters The US–China tariff truce offers a temporary pause, not lasting certainty. For boardrooms and global supply chain teams, understanding the risks, monitoring key signals, and proactively planning for multiple outcomes is critical to maintaining stability, protecting margins, and mitigating the operational and strategic impacts of potential renewed escalation.   More on the U.S., China, South Korea, and what trade talks mean for you: → Borders for the Boardroom: Sean Miner on the US-China trade deal Listen now on Spotify and Apple Music What changed in October 2025… and what didn’t What changed Targeted tariff adjustments and commitments. In the late-October negotiations, U.S. officials said certain tariff lines tied to fentanyl precursor chemicals would be halved – from 20% to 10% – lowering the headline U.S. tariff burden on Chinese imports by a reported few percentage points overall. The talks also included commitments for a sizeable uptick in Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans (Treasury officials cited a figure in the region of 12 million metric tonnes for the season). It’s likely these moves were partially influenced by the U.S. administration’s desire to appease what it sees as a core voter base of workers and farmers. A temporary easing of export control pressure. Beijing signalled it would pause, or at least temper, certain enforcement actions tied to rare-earth export controls, helping to calm thin but critical supply lines for some manufacturers. Markets interpreted the message as conditional rather than permanent, and subsequent industry commentary urged caution.  Regional tariff alignment moves. The U.S. also reached or reaffirmed tariff understandings with regional partners (notably arrangements that set some levies for Japan and South Korea at lower bands), reshaping near-term trade exposure for particular sectors such as autos and shipbuilding. Those regional moves probably form part of a broader attempt to compartmentalise tensions and avoid a wider regional fallout.  What didn’t change The strategic rivalry remains. The truce is tactical. China’s longer-term industrial strategy – including control over mining, processing and refining of many rare earths – has not been reversed. Beijing’s October 2025 expansion of export controls (adding multiple elements and equipment to control lists) shows the country still possesses structural levers that could be re-deployed if negotiations sour.  Legal and policy uncertainty in Washington. The Supreme Court review of IEEPA-based tariff authority introduces a material policy risk. If the Court constrains presidential power to impose broad tariffs, the administration may have to pivot to other mechanisms (e.g., Section 232, Trade Act tools) with different political, legal and operational implications. In short; the legal basis that enabled the rapid imposition of duties early in 2025 is not guaranteed to persist.  Domestic market realities limit quick wins. Beijing’s promise to increase U.S. soybean purchases was electorally useful for the U.S. administration, perhaps, but agricultural market signals suggest China’s immediate buying capacity may be limited by inventory and crush-margin dynamics. Reuters reports flag a soybean stock overhang that may constrain near-term purchases.  The net effect At least in the immediate future, the October ‘tariff truce’ reduces the near-term political temperature: selected tariff lines were eased, some procurement resumed, and short-term market volatility abated.  But – the structural levers that create systemic risk (rare-earth dominance, legal uncertainty over tariff authority, and the political incentives that drive tit-for-tat measures) remain very much alive.  For business leaders, the best operational position is not one of détente, but of time-boxed respite. That means acting quickly to shore up optionality, and avoid being caught in a reactive posture when the pause ends.  H2: Why the truce Is fundamentally unstable The agreement was engineered as a tactical and temporary de-escalation, not as a lasting settlement. While headline tariff lines were softened, the levers of critical economic power remain deeply asymmetrical. First, China’s rare-earth export controls remain a potent strategic weapon. Despite signaling an easing of enforcement, Beijing retains control over key mining and refining capacity. Prior expansions of export restrictions demonstrate that it is fully capable of re-tightening. Second, President Trump’s tariff authority under IEEPA is in question. The U.S. Supreme Court’s current review directly challenges the administration’s legal basis to impose broad trade duties.  Third, domestic and political incentives complicate sustained cooperation. Beijing is under pressure to protect strategic industries; Washington faces conflicting demands from agriculture, manufacturing, tech, and national security voices.  Finally, the temporary nature of the pause itself speaks volumes. This is not a comprehensive reset but a time-bound, finite window, subject to the ebb and flow of geopolitical risk.  Implications for global business and supply chains This tactical pause in trade hostilities brings into focus certain risks for multinational companies operating across complex supply chains. Borders for the Boardroom: Christopher Salmon on supply chain resilience → Listen now on Spotify and Apple Music Import exposure and tariff risk Existing duties remain in place, and the legal jeopardy stemming from IEEPA challenges means the entire tariff infrastructure could change. For supply chain teams, this is the moment to re-assess import exposure: which products are most vulnerable, and what alternative sources exist if the truce unravels. Supply chain architecture and sourcing The pause presents a moment for strategic recalibration. Firms that once relied on ‘China +1’ sourcing strategies should re-evaluate: ‘China +N’ is the more resilient, risk-mitigated position. Near-shoring, alternate production hubs, and regional diversification offer possible solutions, but such shifts can be costly and time-consuming. Contracting, procurement, and pricing governance With uncertainty lessening in the short term, companies may be tempted to renegotiate contracts or lock-in suppliers aggressively. However, such moves should be structured carefully. Procurement teams should build scenario clauses into agreements, allow for tariff escalation or rollback triggers, and articulate pass-through mechanisms.  Capital deployment and investment strategy For capital-intensive operators (especially in autos, semiconductors, and clean tech) the pause is a window of opportunity to recommit capital, under conditional terms.  However, investment without horizon scanning is a high-stakes guessing game. Boardrooms must ringfence capital and create “if-then” gateways triggered directly by treaty developments and legal outcomes. Navigating the tariff pause: signals, strategy, and stability Timely, although seemingly never built to last, the US–China tariff truce represents a holding pattern amid unresolved geopolitical, legal, and economic pressures. For boardrooms, CFOs, and global supply chain leads, vigilance here is critical. The coming 6–9 months will reveal whether the pause becomes a platform for stability, or a prelude to renewed escalation. Key signals to monitor: Supreme Court IEEPA ruling: a decision limiting or upholding presidential tariff authority will immediately reshape strategic options. China’s compliance: soybean purchases, REE export controls, and shifts in blacklists or procurement rules will test the truce’s integrity. U.S. domestic pressures: farmers, retailers, tech, and security interests may prompt rapid shifts in U.S. tariff policy. South Korea and Japan: developments in semiconductor deals, export controls, and bilateral concessions could influence Beijing’s response. China’s geoeconomic posture: incremental moves in investment screening or sector targeting may accumulate into material operational risk. What cross-border companies should do: Refresh scenario models with tariff, legal, and geopolitical triggers Audit supplier and import exposure under multiple outcomes Advance diversification and dual-sourcing strategies Strengthen contractual protections for tariffs and disruptions Monitor policy daily, not quarterly Preparation builds stability Geopolitical uncertainty cannot be entirely eliminated; but it can be priced, planned for, and strategically contained. The U.S.–China relationship is unlikely to revert to pre-2018 norms: structural forces – technological leadership, critical minerals, industrial security – render volatility a recurring reality for multinational organisations. Boardrooms focused on embedding resilience into governance, procurement, investment, and supply chain design will be significantly better-equipped to face future scenarios and weather their impacts.   → Borders for the Boardroom: Christopher Salmon on supply chain resilience Listen now on Spotify and Apple Music

A fragile reset? What the US–China tariff truce means for cross-border trade strategies in 2026
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