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Global trade is growing. So is its complexity.
According to the WTO, world trade growth is projected at 2.6% – and yet, as the mid-2020s unfold, UK businesses are navigating a landscape increasingly shaped by geopolitical shifts, regulatory divergence, and technological disruption. Trade volumes may be expanding, but volatility is expanding faster. Boardrooms that treat risk management as a compliance checkbox risk being caught off guard.
The past few years have highlighted both the effectiveness and limits of traditional risk management in international trade. Supply chain shocks such as the Suez Canal blockage in 2021, and cyberattacks including the ongoing disruptions experienced by Jaguar Land Rover, demonstrate that risks can now materialise in months, weeks, or even days.
Coupled with sudden policy shifts, from Trump-era tariffs to more recent regulatory and export control changes, these events underscore that trading across borders today demands foresight, agility, and a governance approach that treats uncertainty as a central strategic challenge.
| → This article takes a dual-perspective approach. First, we look towards the end of this decade and the start of the next, highlighting pressing systemic risks and strategies boards must adopt to stay resilient and competitive.
Then, for context and comparison, we revisit the early 2020s, providing a snapshot of foundational risk management practices that shaped the current landscape. |
Whether you’re a board member, risk manager, or trade professional – this guide offers actionable insights to anticipate, absorb, and, in some cases, turn global trade risks into strategic opportunities.
Explore how your business can stay ahead of risk and turn uncertainty into advantage. Talk to clearBorder today.
How to mitigate risk in international trade
Executive summary
International trade will never be risk-free, but it can be risk-ready. The boards that succeed in the coming years will be those that treat risk management as a source of resilience and competitive strength.
That means investing in real-time intelligence, horizon scanning, stress-testing supply chains, and embedding flexibility into sourcing and logistics. It means ensuring tariff classification is not relegated to a technical detail, but recognised as a strategic lever with direct implications for cost, market access, and reputation.
Leadership must also broaden its horizon. Risk is no longer confined to political or economic shocks; it extends to cyber exposure, sustainability obligations, and the reputational stakes of operating in sensitive markets.
The final thought? Risk cannot be eliminated, but it can be anticipated, absorbed, and, in some cases, turned into opportunity. The businesses that adopt a forward-looking, compliance-driven approach to trade risk will be best placed to navigate uncertainty – and to capture the advantages hidden within it.
The most pressing risks as we move toward 2030
The variety of risks facing international traders is widening; those business boardrooms that treat risk management as a once-a-year compliance exercise will find themselves outpaced by change.
Looking toward the 2030s, several systemic forces stand out as particularly urgent:
Geopolitical fragmentation
The global trading order is fracturing.
Ongoing tensions between the US and China, sanctions linked to conflicts, and the realignment of supply chains away from single-market dependence are reshaping how companies operate. Trade blocs are becoming more regionalised, and the rules of engagement can change overnight – as recent export controls on semiconductors and critical minerals have shown.
In April 2025 for instance, China imposed export restrictions on seven rare earth elements – dysprosium, terbium, samarium, gadolinium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium – as part of its response to U.S. tariff hikes. These minerals are vital for the production of semiconductors, defense technologies, and electric vehicle components. The restrictions require companies to obtain special export licenses, leading to immediate supply chain disruptions. Shipments of antimony, a key component in semiconductor manufacturing, dropped by 97% following China’s export ban, causing prices to surge by 200%.
These actions demonstrate China’s strategic deployment of its dominance in critical mineral supply chains as a geopolitical tool. The export controls have not only affected the United States but have also had ripple effects globally. European companies, particularly in the automotive and technology sectors, have faced delays and production halts due to China’s stringent licensing requirements.
The impact of these export controls has been multifaceted. They have disrupted production schedules, increased costs, and exposed vulnerabilities in the supply chains of industries reliant on these critical minerals; moreover, they have prompted countries to reassess their dependence on China for essential materials, leading to efforts to diversify sources and secure alternative supply chains.
Climate transition and extreme weather
The UK’s approach to climate policy is in flux, creating new uncertainties for businesses engaged in international trade.
In August 2025, leader of the opposition Conservative Party Kemi Badenoch (not in office at the time of writing) announced a policy to remove all net-zero mandates for North Sea oil and gas extraction. This shift aims to “maximise extraction,” potentially reversing decades of decarbonisation efforts and signaling a retreat from the UK’s climate commitments. Simultaneously, Labour Energy Secretary Ed Miliband is considering softening the party’s stance on banning new North Sea oil and gas drilling, exploring options like permitting “tie-backs” to existing infrastructure, which could unlock substantial fossil fuel reserves.
At the same time, the Green Party has elected a new leader – Zack Polanski – whose voice and influence in shaping environmental policy over the next decade remains uncertain. And, to boot, climate protesters continue to influence the trade and energy landscape with high-profile demonstrations at ports, oil and gas facilities, and logistics hubs – causing temporary shutdowns, delays, and reputational pressures for companies.
Competing political forces like these create a volatile regulatory environment. Businesses must be prepared for policy reversals, shifting incentives, and new compliance requirements, sometimes emerging with little notice.
And compounding these political shifts are the physical impacts of climate change. The summer of 2025 has officially been confirmed as the warmest on record for the UK, and “a summer as hot or hotter than 2025 is now 70 times more likely than it would be in a ‘natural’ climate”.
Meanwhile, international political rhetoric continues to shape perceptions and policy around climate action. At the UN Climate Summit in New York in 2025, former US President Donald Trump dismissed climate change as “the greatest con job ever perpetrated in the world,” signalling ongoing political resistance to aggressive decarbonisation measures. His continued calls for expanded fossil fuel extraction – “drill, baby, drill” – influence global energy markets and contribute to uncertainty for companies trying to align operations with climate commitments.
Such statements, while largely symbolic, can ripple through investor sentiment, trade negotiations, and public expectations. Businesses engaged in international trade must factor in these geopolitical signals when assessing long-term energy costs, sustainability reporting obligations, and reputational risks. Even where policy remains unchanged domestically, external political pressures can slow the adoption of green technologies, affect supply chain sourcing decisions, and alter the competitive landscape in energy-intensive industries.
Regulatory divergence
As governments prioritise resilience and sovereignty, regulatory environments are drifting further apart. For UK businesses, that means adjusting not only to EU requirements but also to a patchwork of rules across Asia-Pacific, North America, and emerging markets.
Divergent data laws, product standards, and customs regimes can quietly add cost and complexity while introducing compliance risk.
Digital disruption and cyber threats
Trade is increasingly digitised – and therefore, increasingly exposed to bad actors.
Cyberattacks on shipping companies, customs brokers, and logistics platforms have already demonstrated the fragility of digital supply chains. Meanwhile, technologies such as AI and blockchain promise greater transparency, but come with their own regulatory uncertainty and ethical considerations.
Macroeconomic volatility
Rising interest rates, shifting consumer demand, and potential debt crises in economies worldwide are creating unstable conditions for trade. Businesses that rely on global sourcing should (not only prepare for, but) expect sudden changes in financing costs, currency fluctuations, and credit availability: all of which can disrupt long-term contracts and partnerships.
Systemic acceleration, interconnected risks
What will distinguish the late 2020s is not the simple presence of global uncertainties, but their pace and interdependence. Risks that once unfolded over years – regulatory shifts, regional conflicts, supply imbalances – now materialise in a matter of months or weeks (or sometimes days), forcing boards to rethink planning horizons and resilience strategies.
Globalisation, once a stabilising force, is fragmenting into regional blocs. For UK businesses, this means opportunities in some corridors may expand while others close abruptly, depending on shifting alliances and policy choices.
Economic volatility is also acquiring a new texture. No longer confined to monetary cycles, inflationary pressures are now tied to resource scarcity, energy transition costs, and the demands of climate adaptation.
The cost of inaction is just as material as the cost of compliance.
Moreover, there is a mindset shift underway. Stakeholders – from investors to regulators to consumers – increasingly expect boards to treat uncertainty as a governance issue, not as a footnote.
And that means greater emphasis on scenario planning, real-time intelligence, and boardroom-level ownership of resilience strategies.
The ripple effect of modern state leadership
Leadership at a national level has always shaped the flow of global trade, but the current era is marked by heightened unpredictability. Decisions made by a small number of leaders can now send immediate ripples across markets, supply chains, and diplomatic alliances.
For UK businesses, the challenge is less about predicting specific outcomes and more about preparing for a wider range of scenarios.
Unilateral policy shifts – whether in tariffs, sanctions, or industrial strategy – can redraw competitive landscapes overnight. In parallel, domestic political pressures often drive leaders to adopt positions that may prioritise short-term national advantage over long-term global stability.
Another factor is the divergence of leadership styles. Some leaders prefer centralised, top-down decision-making with limited transparency, while others operate within more pluralistic but volatile systems. Both approaches generate uncertainty in different ways: one through opacity, the other through rapid swings in direction.
The lesson for boardroom decision-makers is not to focus solely on any single leader, but to recognise the systemic reality: leadership volatility is now a structural feature of global trade.
Case studies: risk mitigation in international trade
In late August 2025, Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), the UK’s largest automotive employer, was struck by a significant cyberattack that halted production across its three UK factories, affecting approximately 33,000 employees. The attack led to a complete shutdown of manufacturing operations, costing the company an estimated £50 million per week in lost production. The impact extended beyond JLR, disrupting its extensive supply chain and leading to financial strain among smaller suppliers. In response, the UK government provided a £1.5 billion loan guarantee to support JLR’s recovery efforts.
After the devastating NotPetya cyberattack, which disrupted operations at over 76 ports and caused tens of millions in lost volume, Maersk rebuilt its entire IT infrastructure in just 10 days: earning recognition for “herculean resilience.” It implemented incident response frameworks, global system redundancies, and bolstered cybersecurity protocols: representing a gold standard in operational recovery.
Global banking giant HSBC employs a comprehensive risk management framework with rigorous stress testing and scenario analysis. By continuously monitoring economic and geopolitical changes, HSBC adapts its strategies to maintain stability and profitability, even during global financial crises.
Unilever, a multinational consumer goods company, mitigates supply chain risks through diversification. By sourcing from multiple suppliers across regions, Unilever reduces dependency on any single source. This strategy is crucial during disruptions like natural disasters and political upheavals, ensuring operational continuity and supporting sustainability.
Siemens integrates advanced digital platforms to map and monitor its global supply chains. By leveraging real-time data and predictive analytics, the company can anticipate bottlenecks, respond quickly to emerging risks, and reduce downtime. This digital-first approach not only strengthens resilience, but also improves transparency for regulators and stakeholders.
Emerging trends and future challenges
Looking ahead, the next decade will not only be defined in terms of risks, but also by profound shifts in how trade is conducted.
- Digitalisation of customs and supply chains is accelerating, bringing new efficiency potential, but also new vulnerabilities around data security and interoperability. Artificial intelligence and automation promise gains in forecasting and compliance but raise questions about oversight and ethical deployment.
- Sustainability pressures are intensifying. Carbon border taxes, mandatory ESG reporting, and growing consumer scrutiny mean that environmental performance will increasingly influence market access as much as price or quality.
- Geopolitical blocs are hardening, with regional trade pacts and “friend-shoring” strategies reshaping sourcing decisions. At the same time, talent and skills training shortages (particularly in regulatory expertise and digital trade systems) look set to become binding constraints.
The challenge for boards is to view these trends not as isolated hurdles but as interconnected forces that will shape long-term competitiveness. Proactive investment in digital capability, sustainability, and geopolitical awareness is likely to distinguish tomorrow’s leaders from those that lag behind.
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Retrospective→ The following sections are drawn from guidance we produced in 2021–22, when businesses were still digesting Brexit adjustments, the pandemic’s aftershocks, and the first wave of supply chain shocks. While some of the risks described may feel familiar, the pace and intensity with which they now unfold is dramatically different. Revisiting this early-2020s perspective shows both how quickly the landscape has shifted – and which foundational practices remain cornerstones of resilience today. |
The trader’s view from the early 2020s
Looking back to 2021–22, international trade was widely described as both essential to growth and fraught with risk. The consensus at the time was that globalisation, while slowing, would largely hold together, provided businesses managed an expanding list of threats.
Forecasts and optimism
At the start of the decade, major institutions such as the European Central Bank, the World Bank, and WTO all predicted steady trade growth of around 3% annually. Analysts believed that once the pandemic shock had eased, supply chains would stabilise and global commerce would recover its rhythm.
In hindsight, those projections look cautious. Trade did rebound, but the bigger story was the speed at which new risks emerged – from geopolitical flashpoints to raw material shortages – catching many businesses underprepared.
What we worried about then
In 2021, the risks most often cited fell into familiar buckets:
- Political instability: government changes, civil unrest, sanctions.
- Economic volatility: currency swings, inflation, recessionary pressures.
- Regulatory uncertainty: navigating compliance in multiple jurisdictions.
- Operational vulnerabilities: fragile supply chains, shipping delays.
- Financial risks: defaults, cashflow crunches.
- Technology threats: cyber attacks and rapid obsolescence.
The narrative was that these risks, if carefully mapped using tools like risk matrices and scenario analysis, could be anticipated and mitigated. Businesses looked to diversify suppliers, lock in currency rates, and rely on instruments such as letters of credit, cultural intelligence, or trade credit insurance.
The assumptions that didn’t hold
Where the early-2020s lens underestimated reality was in three areas:
- Pace of geopolitical fracture
Back then, “political risk” mostly meant short-term disruption. Few expected the scale of structural decoupling we’ve since seen, from U.S.–China chip export controls to Europe’s sudden pivot away from Russian energy.
- Commodities and critical minerals
Supply risk was treated as mostly a logistical problem. But as China tightened its grip on rare earth exports, and the West scrambled for secure supply chains, it became clear that access to resources could be used as a strategic weapon.
- Climate and environmental shocks
Climate-related disruption was still viewed as a long-term horizon risk. Since then, extreme weather and/or political agenda has repeatedly closed ports, blocked canals, and stressed supply chains in ways that are no longer “future” issues but present realities.
What we learned
For traders of the early 2020s, risk management was about mapping a known universe of problems. With hindsight, the larger challenge was recognising that the universe itself was changing: globalisation was shifting into regional blocs, supply resilience mattered as much as cost efficiency, and “black swan” events were arriving with far greater frequency.
The early playbook of diversification, insurance, and compliance frameworks wasn’t wrong, but it underestimated the speed at which risks could crystallise, and the degree to which politics, climate, and resources would intertwine to reshape trade itself.
At clearBorder, we help businesses move beyond that outdated playbook.
Our role is to translate today’s shifting trade landscape into practical strategies – whether that’s navigating new export controls, building resilient supply chains, or preparing for the next regulatory turn. If you’re looking to stay ahead of disruption rather than react to it, get in touch with our team today.
