Strategy & Horizon Scannning

Christopher Salmon

Chief Executive

Brief Overview

This article explores the upcoming 2026 review of USMCA and its implications for cross-border businesses. We outline the key mechanics of the review, potential outcomes, and the strategic considerations boardrooms and trade teams must consider. From supply chain design to investment decisions and compliance obligations, this article aims to help organisations navigate uncertainty and maintain operational resilience in North America.

When the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) entered into force on 1 July 2020, it did more than update the framework of the old North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). It recalibrated North‑American trade for a digital, integrated, and volatile era.

Under the new deal, the three countries introduced modern rules for digital trade, stricter labour and environment obligations, upgraded rules of origin, and delivered stronger protections for investment and services. 

For global supply chains, these shifts matter. Vehicles, for example, now need as much as 75% North‑American content, up from 62.5%. Meanwhile, the inclusion of substantive digital trade and intellectual property chapters meant the agreement moved beyond simple tariff elimination to wider-reaching value‑chain governance.

In short: USMCA is not NAFTA 2.0. It is a regional trade architecture built for modern dependency, co‑manufacture, and cross‑border workflows. And, as the three nations move closer to a (mandatory) review in 2026, failing to understand it risks missing rules that shape sourcing, cost, and compliance in North America and beyond.

Why this matters

The USMCA review introduces uncertainty for North American trade, impacting sourcing, investment, and compliance decisions. Boardrooms and trade teams must understand potential shifts in rules of origin, labour provisions, and trade policy to safeguard margins, protect supply chains, and maintain strategic flexibility in a region critical to global operations.

 

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Market size and trade volumes 

The sheer scale of the US‑Mexico‑Canada trade relationship is enormous. According to the United States Trade Representative (USTR), U.S. goods + services trade with USMCA partners reached about US $1.8 trillion in 2022 (exports ~ US$789.7 billion; imports ~ US$974.3 billion). In 2024, trade within North America was estimated at US$1.6 trillion, and the region accounted for nearly 29% of global GDP. 

Such figures underscore why USMCA matters not only for North‑American companies, but for any boardroom trading into, through, or sourcing from the region.

When nearly one‑third of the world’s economic output is part of the agreement’s jurisdiction, boardrooms cannot treat USMCA as a niche side‑deal. Many critical supply chains (like automotive, electronics, or agriculture) cross borders within the region multiple times, and depend on consistent, clear rules.

When the rules change, so do sourcing models, cost pools, and competitive positioning. Far more than simply dictating the terms of US–Canada–Mexico trade, USMCA directly influences North‑American operational resilience and global competitiveness.

The 2026 review: mechanics and stakes

What Article 34.7 requires 

Under Article 34.7 of USMCA, the three signatory governments are required to conduct a joint review six years after the agreement’s entry, i.e., by 1 July 2026. At that juncture, the parties must decide whether to extend the agreement for another 16‑year term; otherwise, the deal could lapse by 2036 if no extension is agreed. 

The Article also allows for annual reviews if extension is opposed; in effect, the 2026 meeting can trigger either stability (via extension) or a dynamic renegotiation cycle. Each country must publish preparatory consultations – the U.S. was required to initiate public comment by October 2025, and must submit a report to Congress by January 2026 outlining its position. 

Current status

As of November 2025, all three governments have launched domestic consultations: the U.S. (via the Office of the USTR) issued a notice in the Federal Register; Mexico has opened a forum for public comment; and Canada began its own process on 20 September. 

The key milestones ahead:

  • Public comments completed and input analysed (through late 2025)
  • U.S. report to Congress due by January 2026, outlining recommendations and its stance on extension. 
  • Joint review meeting scheduled for 1 July 2026, where decisions on extension and/or amendment will be made.

From a corporate business perspective, boardrooms should monitor three signals:

  • Official positions of each government (especially the U.S.)
  • Any emerging renegotiation agenda items (see below).
  • Early indicators of whether extension is likely, or the review will turn into a renegotiation marathon.

Key agenda items 

Several issues are already flagged by trade‑policy analysts as likely agenda items:

  1. Rules of origin and automotive content: the U.S. has signalled ambitions to tighten North‑American content thresholds further in auto and EV supply chains, to prevent “trans‑shipment” through Mexico or Canada by non‑USMCA countries. 
  2. Labour and environment enforcement: Mexico’s labour‑rights reforms and Canada’s adjustments under USMCA are under scrutiny; the U.S. may demand more rigorous enforcement mechanisms.
  3. Energy and investment: the U.S. may push for wider access to Canadian and Mexican energy sectors, including minerals critical for electric vehicles; investment treaty protections may be enhanced.
  4. China, near‑shoring, and economic security: With the U.S. emphasising manufacturing resilience and decoupling from China, the USMCA review may become a platform to strengthen North‑America as an economic bloc against external dependence. 

Each of these items influence decisions now: where to locate manufacturing, how to design supply chains, how to assess compliance risk and tariff exposure. However, what comes next remains uncertain. The review may bring incremental changes, or it may trigger bigger structural shifts.

Automakers push for USMCA extension

Global automakers including Tesla, Inc., General Motors, and Toyota Motor Corporation have publicly called on the U.S. to accelerate the USMCA review process and extend the agreement ahead of July 2026. According to Reuters, industry officials estimate that more than US$20 billion in North‑American investment is on hold until greater clarity is achieved. 

This signals that even industry heavyweights see the review not as a procedural checkpoint, but as a strategic inflection for capital‑allocation and supply chain design. Firms outside the automotive sector should also watch this as a bellwether for broader cross‑sector investment behaviour.

Scenario planning: three potential outcomes 
Renewal  Renegotiation  Termination / Expiration
USMCA extends unchanged; stability preserves existing supply chain logic and investment plans. USMCA extends with amendments (e.g., tighter rules of origin, new labour / environment standards); cost implications surface, supply chains must adjust. USMCA lapses or one party withdraws; trade reverts to WTO rules or bilateral deals, raising cost, fragmentation, and logistical risk.

Strategic implications for boardrooms 

Investment and partner decisions

With USMCA heading towards its 2026 review, boardrooms must treat investment decisions with heightened scrutiny. Automakers alone say that dwindling confidence is delaying over US$20 billion in new investment. 

Key implications for capital allocation include:

  • Site‑selection for manufacturing in North America may be delayed or paused until clarity emerges.
  • Joint‑venture partner‑commitments may be negotiated on shorter time‑horizons or include exit triggers.
  • Boardroom‑level approval gates should assume a “review‑phase” scenario – investment planning must embed variables for rule‑changes, renegotiation risk, or expiry.

Supply chain design and sourcing risk

USMCA rules underpin the logic of manufacturing networks moving parts across Canada–US–Mexico without major friction (at least, in theory). With the 2026 review looming, this logic is subject to challenge.

Risks for supply chain design include:

  • Changes to rules of origin could raise North‑American content thresholds, increasing cost of goods produced under current assumptions. 
  • Firms may accelerate diversification away from North America to manage real‑option risk (for example, into Asia or Europe) if the three‑country framework looks unstable.
  • Existing routing strategies (e.g., parts crossing borders multiple times) may face renegotiated origin or tariff treatment, which increases logistics complexity and cost.

This means building optional sourcing programmes now: dual‑region sourcing, rapid switch‑capability, alternate suppliers, and logistics planning become critical tools for resilience.

Compliance and governance

USMCA introduced tighter obligations than its predecessor (NAFTA), including sharper labour and environment rules and a more robust dispute settlement mechanism. However, with the 2026 review incoming, governance risk is rising. 

Boardrooms and compliance officers should note:

  • Treaty obligations may be renegotiated, raising retroactive liability for companies structured under earlier terms.
  • Dispute‑settlement activity may spike if new interpretations or enforcement actions are introduced.
  • Firms must maintain traceability across their North American operations, document export and customs compliance with origin requirements, and monitor renegotiation‑risk tied to legacy contracts.

In other words, governance of cross‑border operations must elevate from “monitoring trade‑rules” to “managing trade‑regime risk”.

Boardroom checklist: immediate actions
  • Stakeholder mapping: identify internal and external decision‑makers: procurement leads, legal / compliance, finance, regulators, and key suppliers across North America.
  • Scenario modelling: prepare for renewal, renegotiation, and termination scenarios; quantify financial, operational, and compliance impacts.
  • Sourcing review: audit supply chains for North America dependency, dual‑sourcing options, and flexibility in routing to mitigate potential disruptions.
  • Investment gating: adjust capital deployment timelines; embed conditional approval processes that reflect treaty uncertainty.
  • Policy monitoring: track review updates, government consultations, and public statements from trade officials; maintain rapid‑response plans for emerging decisions.
  • Contract and compliance check: ensure contracts and operational compliance documents align with current USMCA obligations, and identify clauses sensitive to renegotiation or treaty change.

Navigating the 2026 USMCA review

Governmental comments, statements, and geopolitical posturing ahead of the USMCA review should be seen as strategic pre-signals for cross-border business in North America. For boardrooms and trade teams, the period until July 2026 is an active risk vector: every sourcing, investment, and compliance decision made now could determine operational resilience into the next decade.

As we await the official review next year – for now – the key takeaways are:

  1. Urgency matters. Don’t wait for the treaty’s fate to be decided; a position of proactivity allows optionality, rather than reactionary scrambling.
  2. Scenario planning is critical. Consider all three outcomes (renewal, renegotiation, termination) in horizon scanning, financial models, and supply chain design.
  3. Cross-functional alignment. Legal, finance, HR, procurement, and strategic planning teams must coordinate to translate treaty signals into boardroom‑level action.

Ultimately, organisations that integrate these steps into governance frameworks will be best positioned to protect margins, maintain flexibility, and seize opportunities – regardless of how the three nations opt to shape the future of their trading relationship. 

Trading across borders? Need expert, independent advice? 

Contact clearBorder today → 

 

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Strategy & Horizon Scannning

Steel and Aluminium at a Crossroads: Supply Chains, Tariff Wars, Business Impacts

  TLDR 2025 reshaped steel and aluminium supply chains. U.S. tariffs, EU uncertainty, and Chinese overcapacity have all driven structural rerouting, pricing instability, and compliance pressure. Businesses elevating metals sourcing to a strategic capability – with stronger origin assurance, supplier governance, and scenario planning – typically outperform competitors in terms of resilience, cost control, and market access. Firms will need to adapt to preserve their position and competitiveness. 2025 saw the sharpest escalation in metals-trade interventions since the original, President Trump-era Section 232 measures, in 2018. What began as a series of “targeted” moves early in 2025 has evolved into a multi-jurisdictional reset, touching tariffs, origin rules, industrial policy, and supply chain governance. For global businesses reliant on steel and aluminium, this will represent a fundamental shift in operations and market position. Steel and aluminium are systemic commodities. They underpin every major industrial value chain: automotive, aerospace, defence, energy infrastructure, construction, household appliances, and large consumer goods. When trade conditions tighten around these materials, the shockwaves propagate quickly: rising input costs, margin compression, delayed production cycles, and forced redesign of sourcing strategies. Several trigger events collided in 2025: In May 2025, the U.S. raised tariffs to 50% on a wide range of steel and aluminium categories, materially altering the economics of imports. By Q4, Washington introduced tightened melt-and-pour origin rules, significantly raising the bar for compliance and due diligence. Meanwhile, the EU remained locked in slow-moving negotiations with the U.S. on tariff-rate quotas, while simultaneously confronting the long-running challenge of Chinese overcapacity depressing European prices. China’s own pricing volatility (driven by subsidised overproduction and domestic demand swings) continue to distort global markets. Taken together, developments like these show that steel and aluminium supply chains are not experiencing a temporary disruption – they are undergoing a deeper, structural reorganisation. Businesses will need to adapt to preserve their position and competitiveness. Why this matters Global metals policy is moving faster than most supply chains can adjust. The 50% U.S. tariffs, melt-and-pour rules, EU safeguard activity, and China’s continued overproduction are reshaping sourcing and pricing across entire industries. For manufacturers and importers, this is not just a cost issue; it’s a governance, compliance, and competitiveness issue. How firms respond will determine whether they stay ahead of regulatory pressure, or become ensnared in a rapidly tightening enforcement environment. Expert guidance on international trade Contact clearBorder today →  How tariffs reshape global flows The 50% U.S. tariffs  Under the administration of President Trump, the U.S.’s move to increase tariffs to 50% on a wide range of steel and aluminium products marked a pivot in metals trade. The measures affect core inputs such as semi-finished steel, rolled products, extrusions, and several aluminium categories. Downstream products such as cars, domestic appliances, and industrial machinery are increasingly examined for the embedded origin of their metal content. The tariff shock has created three immediate consequences: Domestic inflation in U.S. metals markets. Manufacturers face significantly higher input costs, prompting either price rises or margin erosion. Redirected flows from Asia to Europe. Exporters seeking to avoid U.S. duties have diverted excess supply toward the EU, exacerbating oversupply conditions and placing further pressure on European producers. A new compliance burden for global exporters. The tightened melt-and-pour rules raise the risk of inadvertent non-compliance. Trans-shipment scrutiny has increased; origin validation is now a core operational requirement. EU’s dilemma The EU finds itself between a rock and a hard place. On one side are slow, uncertain EU–U.S. negotiations on tariff-rate quotas and metals cooperation frameworks; on the other is intensifying pressure from the steel lobby to protect European producers from diverted Asian supply after the U.S. tariff shock. European manufacturers face irregular and unpredictable input costs, complicating price setting, inventory planning, and long-term contracting. The EU’s Green Deal Industrial Plan adds further complexity, as imported metals are essential for its energy-transition ambitions, yet those same imports now threaten domestic competitiveness. The overcapacity question China’s long-standing overcapacity issue remains the gravitational centre of global metals instability. Production levels continue to exceed domestic demand, pushing subsidised excess onto global markets and driving renewed price volatility. This places other jurisdictions in a defensive posture. European and U.S. producers have reported intensified undercutting; Asian and Latin American manufacturers face narrowing margins; and developing economies risk deeper dependence on low-cost Chinese supply. Beijing may consider retaliatory measures, or deepen its alignment with Global South partners (such as Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand in Southeast Asia, or members of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States) to mitigate against Western trade interventions. Either path would add new layers of complexity to an already fragmented global steel and aluminium market. Re-routing, re-pricing, re-risking How supply chains are responding The reshaping of steel and aluminium trade is visible in operational patterns, with supply chains reorganising at pace. Businesses are re-routing in order to defend margin and meet compliance thresholds. According to emerging reports, Asian-origin metals that previously flowed into the U.S. are being diverted toward Europe, Turkey, and the Middle East. European manufacturers, in turn, are exploring alternative inputs from India, Brazil, and the Gulf to avoid the tariff spillover effects. This repositioning may also trigger changes in logistics: greater use of east-west routes into the EU, potentially more inventory buffering, and in some sectors (such as automotive and machinery) a shift toward nearshoring for critical components. Cost structures are being re-priced globally. The U.S. tariff shock has lifted domestic prices sharply, while excess supply has depressed segments of the European market. Producers in China and Southeast Asia have adjusted export strategies in real time, offering deeper discounts to maintain throughput. For buyers, this creates a two-speed market: inflationary in the U.S., deflationary or erratic elsewhere. Long-term contracts are harder to negotiate, and index-linked pricing is seeing a resurgence. Perhaps most importantly, supply chains are being re-risked. Compliance is now inseparable from commercial decision-making – a cheap tonne of steel that ultimately fails melt-and-pour verification is a liability, not a saving. Manufacturers are mapping exposure at a deeper level than before, tracing inputs back to smelters (not mills), and stress-testing for tariff escalation or port inspections. Insurance markets are responding too, with new language around origin risk and misdeclaration liability appearing in trade credit and marine cargo policies. Rising compliance complexity The enforcement of the U.S. melt-and-pour rule is proving to be one of the most consequential compliance developments. By requiring origin to be established at the smelting stage – not the final manufacturing stage – regulators have effectively redrawn the documentation burden for the entire value chain. Finished goods manufacturers, especially in automotive, appliances, construction products, and machinery, must now evidence multi-layered provenance to avoid penalties or shipment holds. This comes alongside broader tightening: The EU is advancing anti-circumvention probes and designing new safeguard mechanisms around diverted Asian supply Tariff-rate quota negotiations with the U.S. remain uncertain, complicating long-term planning The UK faces a hybrid challenge: exporters into the U.S. or EU must meet foreign origin standards and navigate domestic decarbonisation requirements shaping the future of UK steelmaking For business boardrooms, this translates into elevated expectations around: Proving origin at smelter level Supplier vetting across multiple jurisdictions End-to-end documentation capable of withstanding audits Horizon scanning for tariff escalation and market fragmentation Avoiding unintentional trans-shipment exposure, especially in multi-country routing models Implications for business Cost structures will remain unstable for the near term. U.S. tariffs have created inflationary pressure domestically; Europe is facing oversupply; and Chinese volatility continues to inject uncertainty into global reference prices. Businesses should anticipate continued dual-market dynamics throughout 2026. Compliance risk has moved from operational to existential. The melt-and-pour rule, EU safeguard mechanisms, and intensified anti-circumvention enforcement mean that the regulatory exposure of a single misclassified input far exceeds the cost of the input itself. Boardrooms increasingly view origin assurance as part of corporate governance, not logistics. Supply chain strategy is entering a redesign phase. Nearshoring and multi-regional sourcing are gaining momentum Dual or triple sourcing for steel and aluminium is becoming standard in automotive, engineering, and construction Inventory models are shifting from just-in-time to strategic buffering Quality and compliance maturity are becoming as important as price when selecting a supplier Commercial positioning is changing, too. Companies that can evidence clean origin, stable sourcing, and strong governance are positioned to outperform competitors in tenders – particularly with OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) facing strict regulatory exposure of their own. For some sectors, metals compliance is now a competitive differentiator. The last word Steel and aluminium have always been essential industrial inputs, but in the current climate, they’ve become a barometer of global economic and geopolitical tension. Tariffs, origin rules, and enforcement actions are all actively reshaping supply chains, capital allocation, and competitiveness. The businesses equipped to succeed in this environment treat metals not simply as commodities to be purchased, but as strategic exposures to be governed. This means that decision-makers have visibility deeper than tier-one suppliers; they can evidence origin at smelt stage. They plan for tariff escalation; not react to it. And they embed compliance into commercial decision-making. Early, proactive movement will help protect against price shocks, audit interventions, and market-access constraints, as the next phase of trade policy unfolds. For manufacturers, importers, and exporters, the question is not whether to adapt, but how quickly. The former era of (relatively) stable and predictable metals flows is over – strategic readiness is now the defining commercial advantage. For trade advisory tailored to your business and its operations Contact the clearBorderteam today → 

Steel and Aluminium at a Crossroads: Supply Chains, Tariff Wars, Business Impacts
Strategy & Horizon Scannning

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Strategy & Horizon Scannning

A fragile reset? What the US–China tariff truce means for cross-border trade strategies in 2026

In late October 2025, a diplomatic thaw between Washington and Beijing produced a narrowly scoped trade “pause” – a tactical (and temporary) easing of the headline tensions which have dominated the trade-sphere in recent months.  The agreement trimmed select U.S. tariff categories (for example, halving certain fentanyl-related duties), and opened the door to resumed Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans; while Beijing signalled a conditional scaling back of some export controls on rare earth elements.  For boardrooms, this pause buys time for resilience-building; what it does not do is remove structural levers that can reignite escalation. China retains decisive market power over rare earths and refining capacity, and Beijing’s export restrictions – introduced and then expanded in October 2025 – remain a latent threat to industries from EV batteries to defence suppliers. Financial and commodity markets treated the announcement as tentative: rare-earth prices and equities briefly eased, but analysts warned supplies and stocks could re-tighten if the geopolitical headwinds shifted.  Meanwhile, political and legal fault-lines persist in Washington. The administration’s tariff authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) is the subject of active judicial scrutiny at the U.S. Supreme Court; justices heard oral arguments on 5 November 2025 and raised serious questions about executive reach. A negative ruling could remove a major instrument of U.S. trade policy – or force the administration to pivot to other statutory levers. That legal uncertainty compounds the truce’s fragility.    Why this matters The US–China tariff truce offers a temporary pause, not lasting certainty. For boardrooms and global supply chain teams, understanding the risks, monitoring key signals, and proactively planning for multiple outcomes is critical to maintaining stability, protecting margins, and mitigating the operational and strategic impacts of potential renewed escalation.   More on the U.S., China, South Korea, and what trade talks mean for you: → Borders for the Boardroom: Sean Miner on the US-China trade deal Listen now on Spotify and Apple Music What changed in October 2025… and what didn’t What changed Targeted tariff adjustments and commitments. In the late-October negotiations, U.S. officials said certain tariff lines tied to fentanyl precursor chemicals would be halved – from 20% to 10% – lowering the headline U.S. tariff burden on Chinese imports by a reported few percentage points overall. The talks also included commitments for a sizeable uptick in Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans (Treasury officials cited a figure in the region of 12 million metric tonnes for the season). It’s likely these moves were partially influenced by the U.S. administration’s desire to appease what it sees as a core voter base of workers and farmers. A temporary easing of export control pressure. Beijing signalled it would pause, or at least temper, certain enforcement actions tied to rare-earth export controls, helping to calm thin but critical supply lines for some manufacturers. Markets interpreted the message as conditional rather than permanent, and subsequent industry commentary urged caution.  Regional tariff alignment moves. The U.S. also reached or reaffirmed tariff understandings with regional partners (notably arrangements that set some levies for Japan and South Korea at lower bands), reshaping near-term trade exposure for particular sectors such as autos and shipbuilding. Those regional moves probably form part of a broader attempt to compartmentalise tensions and avoid a wider regional fallout.  What didn’t change The strategic rivalry remains. The truce is tactical. China’s longer-term industrial strategy – including control over mining, processing and refining of many rare earths – has not been reversed. Beijing’s October 2025 expansion of export controls (adding multiple elements and equipment to control lists) shows the country still possesses structural levers that could be re-deployed if negotiations sour.  Legal and policy uncertainty in Washington. The Supreme Court review of IEEPA-based tariff authority introduces a material policy risk. If the Court constrains presidential power to impose broad tariffs, the administration may have to pivot to other mechanisms (e.g., Section 232, Trade Act tools) with different political, legal and operational implications. In short; the legal basis that enabled the rapid imposition of duties early in 2025 is not guaranteed to persist.  Domestic market realities limit quick wins. Beijing’s promise to increase U.S. soybean purchases was electorally useful for the U.S. administration, perhaps, but agricultural market signals suggest China’s immediate buying capacity may be limited by inventory and crush-margin dynamics. Reuters reports flag a soybean stock overhang that may constrain near-term purchases.  The net effect At least in the immediate future, the October ‘tariff truce’ reduces the near-term political temperature: selected tariff lines were eased, some procurement resumed, and short-term market volatility abated.  But – the structural levers that create systemic risk (rare-earth dominance, legal uncertainty over tariff authority, and the political incentives that drive tit-for-tat measures) remain very much alive.  For business leaders, the best operational position is not one of détente, but of time-boxed respite. That means acting quickly to shore up optionality, and avoid being caught in a reactive posture when the pause ends.  H2: Why the truce Is fundamentally unstable The agreement was engineered as a tactical and temporary de-escalation, not as a lasting settlement. While headline tariff lines were softened, the levers of critical economic power remain deeply asymmetrical. First, China’s rare-earth export controls remain a potent strategic weapon. Despite signaling an easing of enforcement, Beijing retains control over key mining and refining capacity. Prior expansions of export restrictions demonstrate that it is fully capable of re-tightening. Second, President Trump’s tariff authority under IEEPA is in question. The U.S. Supreme Court’s current review directly challenges the administration’s legal basis to impose broad trade duties.  Third, domestic and political incentives complicate sustained cooperation. Beijing is under pressure to protect strategic industries; Washington faces conflicting demands from agriculture, manufacturing, tech, and national security voices.  Finally, the temporary nature of the pause itself speaks volumes. This is not a comprehensive reset but a time-bound, finite window, subject to the ebb and flow of geopolitical risk.  Implications for global business and supply chains This tactical pause in trade hostilities brings into focus certain risks for multinational companies operating across complex supply chains. Borders for the Boardroom: Christopher Salmon on supply chain resilience → Listen now on Spotify and Apple Music Import exposure and tariff risk Existing duties remain in place, and the legal jeopardy stemming from IEEPA challenges means the entire tariff infrastructure could change. For supply chain teams, this is the moment to re-assess import exposure: which products are most vulnerable, and what alternative sources exist if the truce unravels. Supply chain architecture and sourcing The pause presents a moment for strategic recalibration. Firms that once relied on ‘China +1’ sourcing strategies should re-evaluate: ‘China +N’ is the more resilient, risk-mitigated position. Near-shoring, alternate production hubs, and regional diversification offer possible solutions, but such shifts can be costly and time-consuming. Contracting, procurement, and pricing governance With uncertainty lessening in the short term, companies may be tempted to renegotiate contracts or lock-in suppliers aggressively. However, such moves should be structured carefully. Procurement teams should build scenario clauses into agreements, allow for tariff escalation or rollback triggers, and articulate pass-through mechanisms.  Capital deployment and investment strategy For capital-intensive operators (especially in autos, semiconductors, and clean tech) the pause is a window of opportunity to recommit capital, under conditional terms.  However, investment without horizon scanning is a high-stakes guessing game. Boardrooms must ringfence capital and create “if-then” gateways triggered directly by treaty developments and legal outcomes. Navigating the tariff pause: signals, strategy, and stability Timely, although seemingly never built to last, the US–China tariff truce represents a holding pattern amid unresolved geopolitical, legal, and economic pressures. For boardrooms, CFOs, and global supply chain leads, vigilance here is critical. The coming 6–9 months will reveal whether the pause becomes a platform for stability, or a prelude to renewed escalation. Key signals to monitor: Supreme Court IEEPA ruling: a decision limiting or upholding presidential tariff authority will immediately reshape strategic options. China’s compliance: soybean purchases, REE export controls, and shifts in blacklists or procurement rules will test the truce’s integrity. U.S. domestic pressures: farmers, retailers, tech, and security interests may prompt rapid shifts in U.S. tariff policy. South Korea and Japan: developments in semiconductor deals, export controls, and bilateral concessions could influence Beijing’s response. China’s geoeconomic posture: incremental moves in investment screening or sector targeting may accumulate into material operational risk. What cross-border companies should do: Refresh scenario models with tariff, legal, and geopolitical triggers Audit supplier and import exposure under multiple outcomes Advance diversification and dual-sourcing strategies Strengthen contractual protections for tariffs and disruptions Monitor policy daily, not quarterly Preparation builds stability Geopolitical uncertainty cannot be entirely eliminated; but it can be priced, planned for, and strategically contained. The U.S.–China relationship is unlikely to revert to pre-2018 norms: structural forces – technological leadership, critical minerals, industrial security – render volatility a recurring reality for multinational organisations. Boardrooms focused on embedding resilience into governance, procurement, investment, and supply chain design will be significantly better-equipped to face future scenarios and weather their impacts.   → Borders for the Boardroom: Christopher Salmon on supply chain resilience Listen now on Spotify and Apple Music

A fragile reset? What the US–China tariff truce means for cross-border trade strategies in 2026
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