Strategy & Horizon Scannning

Christopher Salmon

Chief Executive

TLDR

HMRC’s MSS 2026 overhaul represents an opportunity for those businesses ready to act now. Free access for importers, richer datasets, and enhanced analytics allow firms to reduce risk, improve operational intelligence, and inform strategic trade decisions. Early adoption enables smoother cross-border operations and boardroom-level visibility.

From March 2026, HMRC’s Management Support System (MSS) will become freely accessible to all UK importers – marking a significant shift in trade compliance and data transparency.

The MSS, an interfacing database with the Customs Handling of Import and Export Freight (CHIEF) system, has traditionally been a paid service. It provides detailed records of cleared customs declarations, including information on commodity codes, customs procedure codes, and the value of goods and taxes paid. This data has been invaluable for businesses to verify import records and ensure compliance with customs regulations.

As of March 2026, HMRC will offer free access to MSS data, allowing businesses to obtain monthly reports that detail their import activities. The move aims to enhance transparency and support businesses in maintaining accurate records, which is crucial for audits and compliance checks. 

This article explores the upcoming MSS changes and what they mean for UK importers. We’ll break down how free access to MSS data will affect compliance obligations, auditing processes, and operational workflows. We’ll also provide a strategic lens for business leaders, highlighting actionable steps to prepare now, avoid penalties, and leverage MSS insights to drive efficiency and smarter decision-making in 2026 and beyond.

Why this matters

The free availability of MSS data presents both opportunities and challenges for UK importers – on the one hand, businesses can leverage this data to improve internal audits, identify discrepancies, and streamline compliance processes; on the other, the increased transparency means that businesses must be more diligent in ensuring their import records are accurate and up to date, as HMRC will have easier access to this information. For senior business leaders, the onus is on using data to drive operational efficiency and strategic decision-making.

Contact clearBorder today → 

What the 2026 MSS changes entail: a boardroom briefing

HMRC’s Management Support System, or MSS (sometimes discussed alongside the Customs Declaration Service or CDS), is an established HMRC dataset used for audits and trader reporting. 

From March 2026, it is moving from a largely internal / limited-access reporting tool, toward a more trader-facing analytics resource. That shift creates both compliance risk and strategic opportunity for importers, freight forwarders and trade teams.

Expanded access and usability

  • Broader user access: MSS-like trader reports are already being modernised through CDS reporting tools, and industry commentary indicates that HMRC plans to make richer dataset access more widely available to importers and their authorised agents. This shift aims to move trader self-service away from bespoke HMRC extracts to standardised, self-serve dashboards. 
  • Dashboard & reporting tools: expect interactive dashboards that surface entry-level detail (such as commodity codes, duties, procedure codes), aggregated KPIs, and downloadable extracts for accounting and audit teams. Where previously MSS extracts were produced on request, the future state looks self-serve.
  • Usability improvements: HMRC is aiming for modernised, browser-based reports and APIs (or equivalent file exports) rather than legacy-format extracts. Mobile access is increasingly standard in recent HMRC digital moves; so plan accordingly for set-and-forget alerts rather than manual report pulls.

→ Who this affects: all UK importers; in-house trade / compliance teams; customs brokers and freight forwarders; finance teams who reconcile import duty and VAT; digital / IT teams who will need to consume or integrate the new feeds.

→ What’s new vs today: previously, MSS-style data was available via internal HMRC extracts or through brokers and paid data services. The change is towards routine, direct access and richer analytics for traders, reducing dependence on third-party extraction and giving firms the data to self-audit and benchmark. 

→ Action for the boardroom: treat your data access plan as a near-term operational priority – map who will need MSS / CDS dashboard access, and how the outputs will connect to ERP, finance, and tax reporting.

New data sets and analytical capabilities

Capabilities likely to appear or expand as MSS / CDS access is opened up include:

  • Import trends & benchmarking: time-series views of your commodity groups, volumes by origin, and duty exposure. This lets procurement and finance teams spot seasonal or supplier-driven tariff risks.
  • Customs duty forecasting: modelling duty exposure under different sourcing scenarios and FTAs – useful for margin forecasting and tendering.
  • Compliance risk scoring: automated flags where declarations deviate from historical patterns (e.g., sudden tariff classification changes, unusual origin claims), enabling proactive remediation before HMRC audit points arise.
  • Cross-reference tooling: instant lookups that link HS codes, historical declarations, duty paid, and preference claims (FTA usage), so teams can reconcile claims and spot misfilings quickly.
  • Predictive analysis: with enough sample size, dashboards can suggest where reclassification or alternative procedures might reduce duty outlay – or highlight areas to prioritise for in-depth reviews.

In short, these tools are geared at moving your organisation from reactive bookkeeping to proactive decisioning: re-routing sourcing, pre-empting audits, and optimising duty reclaims, for instance.

Strategic implications for business leaders

Operational efficiency and risk mitigation

Wider access to MSS / CDS analytics permits regular, in-house compliance health checks rather than one-off HMRC-driven discoveries. Practically, this means:

  • Proactive validation of HS codes and origin claims before shipments leave; reducing the chance of retroactive duty and penalties.
  • Faster reconciliation between declared duties and GL entries (lower finance friction and more accurate margins).
  • Early warning dashboards that route potential audit issues to tax / compliance owners weeks earlier than the HMRC audit cycle.

Competitive advantage through data

Trade teams can use MSS-derived trend analysis to identify product lines delivering the greatest hidden duty cost, and then test rerouting or classification changes under controlled pilots – effectively using HMRC data to reduce future spend.

  • Tariff optimisation: use historical MSS / CDS data to model whether routing via different countries, changing Incoterms, or leveraging reliefs (e.g., inward processing) materially reduce cost per SKU.
  • Supplier strategy: analytics can reveal which suppliers consistently trigger higher duty exposure; procurement teams can fold that into sourcing conversations.
  • Benchmarking and negotiation: visible, auditable import performance strengthens negotiating positions with freight forwarders, brokers, and suppliers.

Practical next steps for leadership: what to do now

  • Map data consumers. 

Identify teams that need MSS (Management Support System) outputs (such as trade compliance, finance, procurement or IT, for instance). Prioritise integration points with ERP (enterprise resource planning) and tax systems.

  • Prepare a data ingestion plan. 

Decide whether you’ll consume HMRC dashboards directly, or pull the data into an internal analytics environment for cross-reference with your ERP.

  • Pilot analytics use cases. 

Start with 1–2 high-value pilots (e.g., Harmonized System code anomaly detection; origin claim verification for top 50 SKUs).

  • Governance and roles. 

Assign ownership for MSS data (who signs on, who reconciles, who acts on alerts). Document standard operating procedures for when dashboards flag issues.

  • Skill up. 

Train trade / compliance /  finance teams in MSS output interpretation and build a small centre of excellence to scale use.

Horizon scanning and risk avoidance

Even with the MSS overhaul, organisations must remain vigilant, in order to protect operational robustness. 

Delays in adopting new dashboards can create blind spots, for instance, while misinterpretation of data outputs risks customs compliance missteps. Over-reliance on MSS without embedding internal controls (such as double-checks, approvals, and reconciliation processes) can magnify errors.

Additionally, combining MSS data with legacy systems introduces potential for misalignment: inconsistent data formats, outdated classifications, or incomplete integration may produce flawed insights. Therefore, future-first organisations should treat MSS adoption as part of a wider governance ecosystem, blending technology, process, horizon scanning, and human oversight to reduce risk and extract maximum value.

Looking ahead: MSS 2026 and beyond

The 2026 overhaul of HMRC’s Management Support System marks a fork in the road for UK importers and trade compliance teams. Beyond compliance, MSS opens the door to richer analytics, predictive modelling, and AI-driven insights that can transform operational intelligence.

Forward-looking organisations can leverage expanded datasets, improved dashboards, and potential future API access to anticipate trade trends, optimise duty planning, and benchmark performance against peers. As international trade evolves, early adoption positions businesses to align seamlessly with future regulatory updates, strengthen global supply chain visibility, and gain strategic advantages before legislation mandates change.

Compliance can no longer be treated as a reactive activity. With the MSS changes, companies that integrate technology, process, and human oversight turn regulatory requirements into actionable intelligence: enhancing decision-making, reducing risk exposure, and providing the board with clearer oversight of international operations.

Ultimately, by treating compliance as a lever for growth rather than a clerical burden, businesses secure both operational resilience and competitive advantage – creating the conditions for growth and success as the new decade approaches. 

If you’re looking for independent, expert consultancy on global trade trends and proactive risk management, reach out to the clearBorder team today →

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Strategy & Horizon Scannning

Steel and Aluminium at a Crossroads: Supply Chains, Tariff Wars, Business Impacts

  TLDR 2025 reshaped steel and aluminium supply chains. U.S. tariffs, EU uncertainty, and Chinese overcapacity have all driven structural rerouting, pricing instability, and compliance pressure. Businesses elevating metals sourcing to a strategic capability – with stronger origin assurance, supplier governance, and scenario planning – typically outperform competitors in terms of resilience, cost control, and market access. Firms will need to adapt to preserve their position and competitiveness. 2025 saw the sharpest escalation in metals-trade interventions since the original, President Trump-era Section 232 measures, in 2018. What began as a series of “targeted” moves early in 2025 has evolved into a multi-jurisdictional reset, touching tariffs, origin rules, industrial policy, and supply chain governance. For global businesses reliant on steel and aluminium, this will represent a fundamental shift in operations and market position. Steel and aluminium are systemic commodities. They underpin every major industrial value chain: automotive, aerospace, defence, energy infrastructure, construction, household appliances, and large consumer goods. When trade conditions tighten around these materials, the shockwaves propagate quickly: rising input costs, margin compression, delayed production cycles, and forced redesign of sourcing strategies. Several trigger events collided in 2025: In May 2025, the U.S. raised tariffs to 50% on a wide range of steel and aluminium categories, materially altering the economics of imports. By Q4, Washington introduced tightened melt-and-pour origin rules, significantly raising the bar for compliance and due diligence. Meanwhile, the EU remained locked in slow-moving negotiations with the U.S. on tariff-rate quotas, while simultaneously confronting the long-running challenge of Chinese overcapacity depressing European prices. China’s own pricing volatility (driven by subsidised overproduction and domestic demand swings) continue to distort global markets. Taken together, developments like these show that steel and aluminium supply chains are not experiencing a temporary disruption – they are undergoing a deeper, structural reorganisation. Businesses will need to adapt to preserve their position and competitiveness. Why this matters Global metals policy is moving faster than most supply chains can adjust. The 50% U.S. tariffs, melt-and-pour rules, EU safeguard activity, and China’s continued overproduction are reshaping sourcing and pricing across entire industries. For manufacturers and importers, this is not just a cost issue; it’s a governance, compliance, and competitiveness issue. How firms respond will determine whether they stay ahead of regulatory pressure, or become ensnared in a rapidly tightening enforcement environment. Expert guidance on international trade Contact clearBorder today →  How tariffs reshape global flows The 50% U.S. tariffs  Under the administration of President Trump, the U.S.’s move to increase tariffs to 50% on a wide range of steel and aluminium products marked a pivot in metals trade. The measures affect core inputs such as semi-finished steel, rolled products, extrusions, and several aluminium categories. Downstream products such as cars, domestic appliances, and industrial machinery are increasingly examined for the embedded origin of their metal content. The tariff shock has created three immediate consequences: Domestic inflation in U.S. metals markets. Manufacturers face significantly higher input costs, prompting either price rises or margin erosion. Redirected flows from Asia to Europe. Exporters seeking to avoid U.S. duties have diverted excess supply toward the EU, exacerbating oversupply conditions and placing further pressure on European producers. A new compliance burden for global exporters. The tightened melt-and-pour rules raise the risk of inadvertent non-compliance. Trans-shipment scrutiny has increased; origin validation is now a core operational requirement. EU’s dilemma The EU finds itself between a rock and a hard place. On one side are slow, uncertain EU–U.S. negotiations on tariff-rate quotas and metals cooperation frameworks; on the other is intensifying pressure from the steel lobby to protect European producers from diverted Asian supply after the U.S. tariff shock. European manufacturers face irregular and unpredictable input costs, complicating price setting, inventory planning, and long-term contracting. The EU’s Green Deal Industrial Plan adds further complexity, as imported metals are essential for its energy-transition ambitions, yet those same imports now threaten domestic competitiveness. The overcapacity question China’s long-standing overcapacity issue remains the gravitational centre of global metals instability. Production levels continue to exceed domestic demand, pushing subsidised excess onto global markets and driving renewed price volatility. This places other jurisdictions in a defensive posture. European and U.S. producers have reported intensified undercutting; Asian and Latin American manufacturers face narrowing margins; and developing economies risk deeper dependence on low-cost Chinese supply. Beijing may consider retaliatory measures, or deepen its alignment with Global South partners (such as Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand in Southeast Asia, or members of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States) to mitigate against Western trade interventions. Either path would add new layers of complexity to an already fragmented global steel and aluminium market. Re-routing, re-pricing, re-risking How supply chains are responding The reshaping of steel and aluminium trade is visible in operational patterns, with supply chains reorganising at pace. Businesses are re-routing in order to defend margin and meet compliance thresholds. According to emerging reports, Asian-origin metals that previously flowed into the U.S. are being diverted toward Europe, Turkey, and the Middle East. European manufacturers, in turn, are exploring alternative inputs from India, Brazil, and the Gulf to avoid the tariff spillover effects. This repositioning may also trigger changes in logistics: greater use of east-west routes into the EU, potentially more inventory buffering, and in some sectors (such as automotive and machinery) a shift toward nearshoring for critical components. Cost structures are being re-priced globally. The U.S. tariff shock has lifted domestic prices sharply, while excess supply has depressed segments of the European market. Producers in China and Southeast Asia have adjusted export strategies in real time, offering deeper discounts to maintain throughput. For buyers, this creates a two-speed market: inflationary in the U.S., deflationary or erratic elsewhere. Long-term contracts are harder to negotiate, and index-linked pricing is seeing a resurgence. Perhaps most importantly, supply chains are being re-risked. Compliance is now inseparable from commercial decision-making – a cheap tonne of steel that ultimately fails melt-and-pour verification is a liability, not a saving. Manufacturers are mapping exposure at a deeper level than before, tracing inputs back to smelters (not mills), and stress-testing for tariff escalation or port inspections. Insurance markets are responding too, with new language around origin risk and misdeclaration liability appearing in trade credit and marine cargo policies. Rising compliance complexity The enforcement of the U.S. melt-and-pour rule is proving to be one of the most consequential compliance developments. By requiring origin to be established at the smelting stage – not the final manufacturing stage – regulators have effectively redrawn the documentation burden for the entire value chain. Finished goods manufacturers, especially in automotive, appliances, construction products, and machinery, must now evidence multi-layered provenance to avoid penalties or shipment holds. This comes alongside broader tightening: The EU is advancing anti-circumvention probes and designing new safeguard mechanisms around diverted Asian supply Tariff-rate quota negotiations with the U.S. remain uncertain, complicating long-term planning The UK faces a hybrid challenge: exporters into the U.S. or EU must meet foreign origin standards and navigate domestic decarbonisation requirements shaping the future of UK steelmaking For business boardrooms, this translates into elevated expectations around: Proving origin at smelter level Supplier vetting across multiple jurisdictions End-to-end documentation capable of withstanding audits Horizon scanning for tariff escalation and market fragmentation Avoiding unintentional trans-shipment exposure, especially in multi-country routing models Implications for business Cost structures will remain unstable for the near term. U.S. tariffs have created inflationary pressure domestically; Europe is facing oversupply; and Chinese volatility continues to inject uncertainty into global reference prices. Businesses should anticipate continued dual-market dynamics throughout 2026. Compliance risk has moved from operational to existential. The melt-and-pour rule, EU safeguard mechanisms, and intensified anti-circumvention enforcement mean that the regulatory exposure of a single misclassified input far exceeds the cost of the input itself. Boardrooms increasingly view origin assurance as part of corporate governance, not logistics. Supply chain strategy is entering a redesign phase. Nearshoring and multi-regional sourcing are gaining momentum Dual or triple sourcing for steel and aluminium is becoming standard in automotive, engineering, and construction Inventory models are shifting from just-in-time to strategic buffering Quality and compliance maturity are becoming as important as price when selecting a supplier Commercial positioning is changing, too. Companies that can evidence clean origin, stable sourcing, and strong governance are positioned to outperform competitors in tenders – particularly with OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) facing strict regulatory exposure of their own. For some sectors, metals compliance is now a competitive differentiator. The last word Steel and aluminium have always been essential industrial inputs, but in the current climate, they’ve become a barometer of global economic and geopolitical tension. Tariffs, origin rules, and enforcement actions are all actively reshaping supply chains, capital allocation, and competitiveness. The businesses equipped to succeed in this environment treat metals not simply as commodities to be purchased, but as strategic exposures to be governed. This means that decision-makers have visibility deeper than tier-one suppliers; they can evidence origin at smelt stage. They plan for tariff escalation; not react to it. And they embed compliance into commercial decision-making. Early, proactive movement will help protect against price shocks, audit interventions, and market-access constraints, as the next phase of trade policy unfolds. For manufacturers, importers, and exporters, the question is not whether to adapt, but how quickly. The former era of (relatively) stable and predictable metals flows is over – strategic readiness is now the defining commercial advantage. For trade advisory tailored to your business and its operations Contact the clearBorderteam today → 

Steel and Aluminium at a Crossroads: Supply Chains, Tariff Wars, Business Impacts
Strategy & Horizon Scannning

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Strategy & Horizon Scannning

A fragile reset? What the US–China tariff truce means for cross-border trade strategies in 2026

In late October 2025, a diplomatic thaw between Washington and Beijing produced a narrowly scoped trade “pause” – a tactical (and temporary) easing of the headline tensions which have dominated the trade-sphere in recent months.  The agreement trimmed select U.S. tariff categories (for example, halving certain fentanyl-related duties), and opened the door to resumed Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans; while Beijing signalled a conditional scaling back of some export controls on rare earth elements.  For boardrooms, this pause buys time for resilience-building; what it does not do is remove structural levers that can reignite escalation. China retains decisive market power over rare earths and refining capacity, and Beijing’s export restrictions – introduced and then expanded in October 2025 – remain a latent threat to industries from EV batteries to defence suppliers. Financial and commodity markets treated the announcement as tentative: rare-earth prices and equities briefly eased, but analysts warned supplies and stocks could re-tighten if the geopolitical headwinds shifted.  Meanwhile, political and legal fault-lines persist in Washington. The administration’s tariff authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) is the subject of active judicial scrutiny at the U.S. Supreme Court; justices heard oral arguments on 5 November 2025 and raised serious questions about executive reach. A negative ruling could remove a major instrument of U.S. trade policy – or force the administration to pivot to other statutory levers. That legal uncertainty compounds the truce’s fragility.    Why this matters The US–China tariff truce offers a temporary pause, not lasting certainty. For boardrooms and global supply chain teams, understanding the risks, monitoring key signals, and proactively planning for multiple outcomes is critical to maintaining stability, protecting margins, and mitigating the operational and strategic impacts of potential renewed escalation.   More on the U.S., China, South Korea, and what trade talks mean for you: → Borders for the Boardroom: Sean Miner on the US-China trade deal Listen now on Spotify and Apple Music What changed in October 2025… and what didn’t What changed Targeted tariff adjustments and commitments. In the late-October negotiations, U.S. officials said certain tariff lines tied to fentanyl precursor chemicals would be halved – from 20% to 10% – lowering the headline U.S. tariff burden on Chinese imports by a reported few percentage points overall. The talks also included commitments for a sizeable uptick in Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans (Treasury officials cited a figure in the region of 12 million metric tonnes for the season). It’s likely these moves were partially influenced by the U.S. administration’s desire to appease what it sees as a core voter base of workers and farmers. A temporary easing of export control pressure. Beijing signalled it would pause, or at least temper, certain enforcement actions tied to rare-earth export controls, helping to calm thin but critical supply lines for some manufacturers. Markets interpreted the message as conditional rather than permanent, and subsequent industry commentary urged caution.  Regional tariff alignment moves. The U.S. also reached or reaffirmed tariff understandings with regional partners (notably arrangements that set some levies for Japan and South Korea at lower bands), reshaping near-term trade exposure for particular sectors such as autos and shipbuilding. Those regional moves probably form part of a broader attempt to compartmentalise tensions and avoid a wider regional fallout.  What didn’t change The strategic rivalry remains. The truce is tactical. China’s longer-term industrial strategy – including control over mining, processing and refining of many rare earths – has not been reversed. Beijing’s October 2025 expansion of export controls (adding multiple elements and equipment to control lists) shows the country still possesses structural levers that could be re-deployed if negotiations sour.  Legal and policy uncertainty in Washington. The Supreme Court review of IEEPA-based tariff authority introduces a material policy risk. If the Court constrains presidential power to impose broad tariffs, the administration may have to pivot to other mechanisms (e.g., Section 232, Trade Act tools) with different political, legal and operational implications. In short; the legal basis that enabled the rapid imposition of duties early in 2025 is not guaranteed to persist.  Domestic market realities limit quick wins. Beijing’s promise to increase U.S. soybean purchases was electorally useful for the U.S. administration, perhaps, but agricultural market signals suggest China’s immediate buying capacity may be limited by inventory and crush-margin dynamics. Reuters reports flag a soybean stock overhang that may constrain near-term purchases.  The net effect At least in the immediate future, the October ‘tariff truce’ reduces the near-term political temperature: selected tariff lines were eased, some procurement resumed, and short-term market volatility abated.  But – the structural levers that create systemic risk (rare-earth dominance, legal uncertainty over tariff authority, and the political incentives that drive tit-for-tat measures) remain very much alive.  For business leaders, the best operational position is not one of détente, but of time-boxed respite. That means acting quickly to shore up optionality, and avoid being caught in a reactive posture when the pause ends.  H2: Why the truce Is fundamentally unstable The agreement was engineered as a tactical and temporary de-escalation, not as a lasting settlement. While headline tariff lines were softened, the levers of critical economic power remain deeply asymmetrical. First, China’s rare-earth export controls remain a potent strategic weapon. Despite signaling an easing of enforcement, Beijing retains control over key mining and refining capacity. Prior expansions of export restrictions demonstrate that it is fully capable of re-tightening. Second, President Trump’s tariff authority under IEEPA is in question. The U.S. Supreme Court’s current review directly challenges the administration’s legal basis to impose broad trade duties.  Third, domestic and political incentives complicate sustained cooperation. Beijing is under pressure to protect strategic industries; Washington faces conflicting demands from agriculture, manufacturing, tech, and national security voices.  Finally, the temporary nature of the pause itself speaks volumes. This is not a comprehensive reset but a time-bound, finite window, subject to the ebb and flow of geopolitical risk.  Implications for global business and supply chains This tactical pause in trade hostilities brings into focus certain risks for multinational companies operating across complex supply chains. Borders for the Boardroom: Christopher Salmon on supply chain resilience → Listen now on Spotify and Apple Music Import exposure and tariff risk Existing duties remain in place, and the legal jeopardy stemming from IEEPA challenges means the entire tariff infrastructure could change. For supply chain teams, this is the moment to re-assess import exposure: which products are most vulnerable, and what alternative sources exist if the truce unravels. Supply chain architecture and sourcing The pause presents a moment for strategic recalibration. Firms that once relied on ‘China +1’ sourcing strategies should re-evaluate: ‘China +N’ is the more resilient, risk-mitigated position. Near-shoring, alternate production hubs, and regional diversification offer possible solutions, but such shifts can be costly and time-consuming. Contracting, procurement, and pricing governance With uncertainty lessening in the short term, companies may be tempted to renegotiate contracts or lock-in suppliers aggressively. However, such moves should be structured carefully. Procurement teams should build scenario clauses into agreements, allow for tariff escalation or rollback triggers, and articulate pass-through mechanisms.  Capital deployment and investment strategy For capital-intensive operators (especially in autos, semiconductors, and clean tech) the pause is a window of opportunity to recommit capital, under conditional terms.  However, investment without horizon scanning is a high-stakes guessing game. Boardrooms must ringfence capital and create “if-then” gateways triggered directly by treaty developments and legal outcomes. Navigating the tariff pause: signals, strategy, and stability Timely, although seemingly never built to last, the US–China tariff truce represents a holding pattern amid unresolved geopolitical, legal, and economic pressures. For boardrooms, CFOs, and global supply chain leads, vigilance here is critical. The coming 6–9 months will reveal whether the pause becomes a platform for stability, or a prelude to renewed escalation. Key signals to monitor: Supreme Court IEEPA ruling: a decision limiting or upholding presidential tariff authority will immediately reshape strategic options. China’s compliance: soybean purchases, REE export controls, and shifts in blacklists or procurement rules will test the truce’s integrity. U.S. domestic pressures: farmers, retailers, tech, and security interests may prompt rapid shifts in U.S. tariff policy. South Korea and Japan: developments in semiconductor deals, export controls, and bilateral concessions could influence Beijing’s response. China’s geoeconomic posture: incremental moves in investment screening or sector targeting may accumulate into material operational risk. What cross-border companies should do: Refresh scenario models with tariff, legal, and geopolitical triggers Audit supplier and import exposure under multiple outcomes Advance diversification and dual-sourcing strategies Strengthen contractual protections for tariffs and disruptions Monitor policy daily, not quarterly Preparation builds stability Geopolitical uncertainty cannot be entirely eliminated; but it can be priced, planned for, and strategically contained. The U.S.–China relationship is unlikely to revert to pre-2018 norms: structural forces – technological leadership, critical minerals, industrial security – render volatility a recurring reality for multinational organisations. Boardrooms focused on embedding resilience into governance, procurement, investment, and supply chain design will be significantly better-equipped to face future scenarios and weather their impacts.   → Borders for the Boardroom: Christopher Salmon on supply chain resilience Listen now on Spotify and Apple Music

A fragile reset? What the US–China tariff truce means for cross-border trade strategies in 2026
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